Israel Braces for Iranian Retaliation After Assassinations

An anxious calm hangs over Israel.

The northern Israeli city of Haifa and its port on Saturday.Credit...Oren Ziv/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

An uneasy calm hung over Israel on Saturday as the country braced for a threatened Iranian retaliation for the assassinations of senior Hamas and Hezbollah figures, with fears escalating that Israel’s long-running hostilities between Iran and its allies could intensify into an even wider regional war.

The Israeli public is already worn down by 10 months of fighting in Gaza following the Oct. 7 attack led by Hamas on the country, and by attacks on other fronts. Hezbollah and the Israeli military have for months traded fire across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, and Iran in April launched a wave of missiles and drones at Israel in response to a strike on its embassy complex in Syria.

Iran and Hezbollah’s latest threats to retaliate have added another level of uncertainty to the persistent anxiety of the war. Israeli officials have urged residents to prepare food and water in fortified safe rooms. Paramedics conducted an emergency drill to practice in case of full-scale war. Medical centers in northern Israel prepared for the possibility that they might need to move patients into protected underground wards.

“The volume has been turned up to 11 from every side,” said Ofer Wasserman, 51, a resident of Tel Aviv.

His partner, Anat, wondered whether anxiety over a potential escalation was justified.

“Hezbollah hasn’t shot at us with the aim of total war up until now — why should they do it now?” she said as they watched their daughter from a Jerusalem street bench. “We have safe rooms, as well, and the Iron Dome,” she added, referring to Israel’s aerial defense system.

“But they might feel the need to respond now, and then there would need to a response to that, as well,” Mr. Wasserman said.

Regional tensions soared this week after the two high-profile killings. On Tuesday, Israel assassinated Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, in Beirut, describing it as retaliation for a rocket attack from Lebanon that killed 12 children in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights days earlier. Several hours after the Beirut strike, an explosion in Tehran killed Ismail Haniyeh, leader of Hamas’s political office. Iran and Hamas blamed Israel, which has not publicly taken responsibility for killing Mr. Haniyeh.

Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas have all vowed to avenge the killings, putting Israel on a state of alert for the possibility of an imminent attack that could come from multiple countries at once.

Mr. Wasserman, the Tel Aviv resident, said the assassinations would ultimately accomplish very little. Both leaders would be replaced, he said, just as Hezbollah and Hamas had quickly filled the shoes of other leaders that Israel had assassinated. “As long as there are people without rights, there’s going to be resistance,” he said. “It won’t end even if you take out the current leaders.”

Over the months since Oct. 7, Israel had slowly adjusted to the wartime routine. Nearly 300,000 Israelis have served weeks or months of military reserve duty and tens of thousands of others have been forced to flee their homes on Israel’s northern and southern borders because of the fighting.

But even longtime observers were shocked by the dizzying pace of developments that unfolded over the past week.

Before the latest assassinations, some Israelis were hoping for a cease-fire in Gaza soon that would bring home the remaining 115 hostages still held there. U.S. officials have said a truce between Israel and Hamas could pave the way for a diplomatic settlement to end the fighting with Hezbollah as well.

Although Hezbollah has fired thousands of drones and missiles at Israel since Oct. 8, and Israel has retaliated in turn, the conflict has persisted in a measured, if destructive, game of tit-for-tat. But neither side has shown an appetite, so far, to escalate to a full-on war that would likely be disastrous for Israel and Lebanon.

In contrast with Hamas, Hezbollah possesses a sophisticated arsenal of drones and precision-guided missiles that analysts say could overwhelm Israel’s aerial defenses. The Israeli military response to such an attack would likely be devastating to Lebanon.

For now, Israel is bracing to see how Iran and Hezbollah will retaliate. Hassan Nasrallah said this week that “the response will come, whether spread out or simultaneously,” but also that Israel’s reaction would determine whether the war escalated.

The supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has promised “harsh punishment” for the killing of the Hamas leader in Tehran. But Iran’s April response to a provocative strike — which killed senior Iranian generals in Syria — was telegraphed well in advance, despite its scope. In that response, Iran fired 300 missiles and drones at Israel, causing a display of fireworks in the skies over Israel as Israeli rockets intercepted the barrage.

That attack mostly targeted an Israeli air base in the country’s south, and Israel and the United States had ample time to prepare a joint aerial defense. Some Israelis and their allies fear any coming attack could hit civilian areas and critical infrastructure, and the Pentagon dispatched additional combat aircraft and missile-shooting warships to the Middle East on Friday to bolster defenses.

Israel’s northern border towns and villages lie directly in the line of fire, particularly from Hezbollah’s rockets.

Roughly 60,000 people in Israel and 100,000 in Lebanon have been displaced by the fighting with Hezbollah since October, with no clear timeline for returning to their homes.

Some frustrated residents now hope that the escalation might at least break the monthslong deadlock.

Nisan Zeevi, who lives in Kfar Giladi near the Lebanese border, said the last few days had been quieter than usual, despite the occasional rocket barrage. Only a few dozen residents remained in the village — most were evacuated early the war — and those who remained were “on alert,” he added.

“We’re hoping to see the government step up its fight against Hezbollah,” said Mr. Zeevi, a member of the town’s emergency patrol. “We have been stuck in this situation for too long.”

The prospect of a truce — either in Gaza or in Lebanon — remains remote for the time being. Negotiations that would free the remaining hostages have largely stalled in the wake of Mr. Haniyeh’s assassination, although the Israeli government sent a delegation to Cairo to resume talks on a potential cease-fire deal.

But all sides are still waiting to see how Hezbollah and Iran respond to the assassinations, which will likely shape their calculations during future talks. Diplomats and analysts say Hamas also needs time to regroup after the death of Mr. Haniyeh, who played a key role in the negotiations.

— Aaron Boxerman