The ‘Three Musketeers’ reshaping the Middle East

‘All for one, one for all’ pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan seeks to modify security architecture amid global tension

by Sophia Yan Senior foreign correspondent. Henry Bodkin Jerusalem Correspondent. Ida Simon

Three flags, one table – and if you squint – a plot that would have made Alexandre Dumas reach for his pen.

A new trilateral defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan has been signed, promising “all for one, one for all” – dressed in the language of collective deterrence.

It is a modern-day version of the Three Musketeers invented by Dumas for his eponymous novel, who agreed to fight as one whenever a fourth struck with a rapier. 

And it mirrors the familiar clause that underpins Nato’s Article 5, which holds that an attack on one is an attack on all and will trigger a unified response.

The Sunni nations are taking matters into their own hands to reshape security architecture at a time of growing tensions and instability – especially as the US-Israeli war against Iran has no end in sight – and in preparation for a post-American regional order.

The deal draws on equal strengths: Saudi oil wealth, Turkish military hardware and Pakistani nuclear capability.

But there are questions about whether it will successfully deter or heighten tensions – even though all three members have insisted that the pact is not directed towards any one state.

‘Defence vs confrontation’

The agreement is “defensive in nature”, said Ishaq Dar, the Pakistani deputy prime minister. “It is not directed against any country…[and] is not an instrument of confrontation, but an expression of our collective commitment to peace through strength, solidarity and mutual respect.

“We don’t have anything written down – nothing we’ve signed – that defines a common threat,” said Hakan Fidan, the Turkish foreign minister. “Any country that does not attack us is not a target for us.”

It also “does not represent any intention to build a military axis or a sectarian bloc”, said Rayed Krimly, the Saudi deputy minister for public diplomacy.

Such words aim to reassure – useful as the trio geographically surround Iran, which onlookers assume is the unnamed Cardinal Richelieu, the villain of Dumas’s 1844 romance.

The optics have been symbolic, and clearly aimed at putting Iran on notice.

The three leaders descended on Mecca, the holiest site in Islam, to finalise the new deal.

“The reason they did it in Mecca is to send a message to Muslim state and non-state actors to say: ‘This is sacred,’” said Yasmine Farouk, the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project group at International Crisis Group, a non-profit think tank.

As the ink dried, the three leaders and their senior officials offered Friday prayers together at the Al-Safa Palace – a devotional bookend to a defence treaty that Riyadh clearly wanted photographed.

More than a week after the initial signing – and with implementation just beginning – the agreement continues to be described as merely symbolic.

But that’s how its members want it to remain if this defence pact is to succeed in the long term.

Officials and experts emphasise that the deal is not about escalation, as military force remains a matter of last resort when it comes to strategic deterrence regarding Iran.

This is clear given the inclusion of Turkey and Pakistan, which do not support aggression against Iran and have actively refused to join the war – both working instead to mediate –  even though Turkey was targeted earlier in the conflict.

But the Gulf region is seeking additional ways to counter Iran, which has launched hundreds of attacks against more than a dozen of its neighbours since war broke out in late February.

Strikes, too, have been perpetrated by Iran’s proxy groups, including the Houthis in Yemen and Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, which have repeatedly threatened and struck Saudi Arabia. The latest target was a Saudi oil refinery.

The three-way deal is all about “telling Iran: ‘If you continue, we also have options’”, said Ms Farouk.

No one is drawing steel automatically. A member state must formally request support, which could come in the form of intelligence sharing, logistics or troop deployment, depending on the threat.

Committee meetings will be held with members’ foreign and defence ministers, along with military chiefs – calling to mind the musketeers huddling at the inn.

A permanent secretariat will also be set up, based in Riyadh, to co-ordinate and facilitate requests and meetings.

Ensuring greater regional co-operation and co-ordination is of increasing importance as confidence wanes in the US.

As such, the existence of the agreement “reflects growing regional frustration with US security guarantees”, said Fathollah Nejad, director of the Centre for Middle East and Global Order, a Berlin-based think tank.

“Everybody is going through a thinking process on how to shape the outcome of this war, given that there will potentially be a US re-posturing,” said Ms Farouk. “It’s really about how to make use of what’s left of American leverage, because the US remains the Gulf’s best alternative when it comes to deterrence and defence.”

The problem is that the Gulf does not have enough influence over what the US does in the region.

“The US will end up doing what the US wants and to do,” said Ms Farouk. “This current war has shown this. It’s leaving them in a worse situation regarding US military deterrence vis-a-vis Iran.”

The entry of foreign powers to the region, Mr Fidan said, did not solve problems but made them “more acute” – and at high cost.

Additional members

Whether a fourth musketeer will emerge remains to be seen, though as the saying goes, strength comes in numbers.

More states are welcome to join, with Egypt as the most obvious candidate, having participated in several rounds of talks with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan since March – now called the “regional four”.

Though Egypt was invited to join the pact, it has chosen to remain on the sidelines for now. This may have been because it has a border with Israel – unlike the other three nations – which would have been a complicating factor.

Beyond political alignment, joint exercises are planned and defence sales are being agreed as countries seek to boost their capabilities after years of primarily relying on the US for security. 

More weapons deals could soon come within this trio, given Turkey’s rise as a global defence exporter.

The pact is also an effort to counter Israel, which has risen as an unpredictable force in the region since the war in Gaza began in October 2023.

Recent disagreements between Donald Trump, the US president, and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, have only fuelled concerns about more uncertainty on the horizon.

Before the Gaza war broke out, the US favoured normalising ties between Israel and Arab nations as a way toward lasting peace, culminating in the Abraham Accords in 2020, brokered by the US.

“The original logic of the accords was that normalisation with Israel was the route for Arab states onto America’s good side, with Israel as the enabler that opened Washington’s door,” said David Lega, a Swedish politician and former member of the European Parliament.

But now, “the specific incentive Israel could once offer is weaker”, said Mr Lega, a staunch advocate of the Abraham Accords. Thus, this defence pact “offers another path towards the same goal; one that does not run through Israel”.

References to an “Arab Nato” are perhaps premature, and certainly not in terms of “surrounding Israel”, even though tensions are increasing with Turkey, said Joseph Rozen, a geopolitical strategist at the Misgav Institute, an Israeli national security think tank.

This is mainly because all three members remain key allies of the US and would not jeopardise that by threatening Israel, he noted.

For now, officials talking about the deal are less about being en garde than putting forward the diplomatic equivalent of sheathing the sword.

“It is a reactive alignment, rather than a proactive alignment, to manage the consequences and rebounds of the actions of Israel and Iran over the past two, three years,” said Ms Farouk.