Five Signs Israel and Iran Could Be Headed Toward Open War

By Amir Daftari

Threats from both Iran and Israel are intensifying, pushing them closer to direct military conflict in an already volatile and war-torn region. Alongside Israeli military drills, stalled diplomatic talks, and proxy skirmishes, these hostile warnings signal a dangerous escalation.

Why It Matters

A potential full-scale war between Iran and Israel would further destabilize an already volatile Middle East, with serious implications for global security. Iran's missile advancements and unwavering position on nuclear enrichment, combined with the firm red lines set by the U.S. and ongoing, yet slow moving, attempts at diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, have intensified tensions. Such a conflict could disrupt global oil supplies, involve international powers, and deepen regional instability.

These five critical indicators highlight just how fragile the situation has become:

1. Iran's Missile Fuel Shipments

Iran has reportedly ordered thousands of tons of ammonium perchlorate from China, a key ingredient for producing solid-fueled ballistic missiles, aiming to reinforce its military capabilities.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the materials, which could be used to manufacture up to 800 missiles, are expected to be delivered in the coming months, and some may be distributed to Iranian-aligned militias, including the Houthis in Yemen.

The procurement appears to be part of Iran's strategy to strengthen its regional alliances and missile arsenal as it resists limiting its missile development in nuclear talks.

2. Israel Ready to Strike

Israel is actively preparing for a possible strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, contingent on the outcome of ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have conducted extensive military drills simulating a multi-day offensive against Iranian targets, underscoring the seriousness of these preparations.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized Israel's right to defend itself and declared that any agreement must block Iran from enriching uranium. While Trump recently cautioned Netanyahu that a strike would be "inappropriate" while diplomacy continues—saying the sides are "very close to a solution"—he has also left open the possibility of supporting action if talks collapse.

3. Iran-Linked Militias

Tensions between Israel and Iran are rising through proxy forces in the region. On Wednesday, Israel launched rare airstrikes in Syria—its first in nearly a month—after two projectiles were fired from Syrian territory. Israel blamed Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, while Damascus denied aggression and reported heavy losses.

According to a report by Reuters, a Syrian official suggested Iran-backed militias in the country's Quneitra region may be provoking retaliation to destabilize the area. Around the same time, Yemen's Houthis launched a ballistic missile at Jaffa in support of Palestinians. This growing coordination among Iranian-linked militias signals a dangerous expansion of the conflict beyond the core Iran-Israel axis.

4. Netanyahu's Political Struggles

With Netanyahu facing political challenges at home, Iran could be a rallying point to strengthen his political standing. Netanyahu has framed the threat from Iran as an existential challenge that demands strong leadership.

This emphasis on national security helps him unify supporters amid deep domestic divisions. Moreover, Netanyahu declared that Iran is currently "many, many steps back" and at its weakest, making now the best time for Israel to strike before Tehran recovers.

5. Israel's Isolation

The war in Gaza has left Israel increasingly isolated on the world stage, weakening its regional standing and emboldening Iran. Arab nations that previously engaged with Israel have pulled back—Jordan recalled its ambassador, Turkey cut diplomatic ties, and Saudi normalization talks have collapsed.

At the same time, Iran has strengthened strategic ties with Russia and China and positioned itself as a regional counterweight to Israel. As global sympathy for Israel wanes and Western allies express frustration, Iran senses greater freedom to assert its influence and resist pressure over its nuclear program.

A protester wears a mask of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a demonstration against controversial legislation that will increase political control over judicial appointments on March 26, 2025 in Jerusalem. Amir Levy/Getty Images

What Happens Next

The coming weeks are likely to see rising volatility as Israel weighs its next move amid growing friction with Iran. With military preparations already underway and public statements signaling readiness, Israeli leaders appear increasingly willing to act unilaterally if they judge Iran's nuclear progress to have crossed a red line.

Iranian officials, for their part, continue to assert their right to enrich uranium while warning of retaliation if attacked.