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Source: NY Times

Apr 19, 2024

Live Updates: Israel Strikes Iran, but Scope of Attack Appears Limited

Iranian officials reported blasts overnight at a military base near the city of Isfahan. Israel had vowed retaliation for Iran’s attack last weekend, but muted initial reaction in both countries suggested they wanted to ease tensions


Here are the latest developments.

The Israeli military struck Iran early on Friday, according to two Israeli and three Iranian officials, in what appeared to be Israel’s first military response to Iran’s attack last weekend but one whose scope, at least initially, appeared to be limited.


The Iranian officials said that a strike had hit a military air base near the city of Isfahan, in central Iran. Initial reaction in both Israel and Iran was muted, with news media in both countries appearing to play down the attack, in what analysts said was a sign that the rivals were seeking to de-escalate tensions. For nearly a week, world leaders have urged Israel and Iran to avoid sparking a broader war in the region.


The Israeli military declined to comment. All the officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.


The explosions came less than a week after Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel — nearly all of which were shot down — in response to an April 1 strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria that killed seven Iranian officials. That attack brought the decades-long shadow war between Israel and Iran — waged on land, at sea, in air and in cyberspace — more clearly into the open.


  • Israeli leaders came close to ordering widespread strikes in Iran on the night Iran attacked, officials said, but after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with President Biden, and because the damage was limited, the war cabinet postponed a decision. Mr. Biden and other world leaders urged Israel for days not to retaliate in a way that would inflame a wider Middle East war while it fights on two other fronts, against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both allies of Iran.


  • The Iranian officials said that the attack on Friday was carried out by small drones, possibly launched from inside Iran. They said that a separate group of small drones was shot down in the Tabriz region, roughly 500 miles north of Isfahan. Iranian news agencies reported that nuclear facilities in Isfahan had not been hit.


  • President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran had warned that “the tiniest act of aggression” on his country’s soil would draw a response. But in the hours after Israel’s strike, there have been no public calls for retribution by Iranian officials.


  • The United States and Britain on Thursday imposed new sanctions on Iranian military leaders and weapons manufacturers, a coordinated action that they said would further isolate Iran. White House officials said the U.S. sanctions were aimed at disrupting Iran’s ability to produce the drones it had used to attack Israel and blocking exports from its lucrative steel industry.


Israel’s strike was smaller than expected, and so was Iran’s reaction.


The relatively limited scope of Israel’s overnight strikes on Iran, and a subdued response from Iranian officials, may have lowered the chances of an immediate escalation in fighting between the two countries, analysts said Friday.


For days, there have been fears that a forceful Israeli response to Iran’s attack on southern Israel last weekend could prompt an even more aggressive riposte from Iran, potentially turning a tit-for-tat confrontation into a wider war.


Foreign leaders advised Israel to treat its successful defense against Iran’s missile barrage as a victory that required no retaliation, warning against a counterattack that might further destabilize the region.


But when it finally came early on Friday, Israel’s strike appeared less damaging than expected, allowing Iranian officials and state-run news outlets to downplay its significance, at least at first.


Iranian officials said that no enemy aircraft had been detected in Iranian airspace and that the main attack — on a military base in central Iran — had been initiated by small unmanned drones that were likely launched from inside Iranian territory. The nature of the attack even had precedent: Israel used similar methods in an attack on a military facility in Isfahan early last year.


By sunrise, Iranian state-run news outlets were projecting a swift return to normality, broadcasting footage of calm street scenes, while officials publicly dismissed the impact of the attack. Airports were also reopened, after a brief overnight closure.


Analysts cautioned that any outcome was still possible. But the initial Iranian reaction suggested that Iran’s leaders would not rush to respond, despite warning in recent days that they would react forcefully and swiftly to any Israeli strike.


“The way they present it to their own people, and the fact that the skies are open already, allows them to decide not to respond,” said Sima Shine, a former head of research for the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, and an Iran expert.


But, she added, “We have made so many evaluation mistakes that I am very hesitant to say it definitively.”


In a miscalculation that set off the current round of violence, Israel struck an Iranian embassy compound in Syria on April 1, killing seven Iranian officials including three senior commanders.


For years, Israel had mounted similar attacks on Iranian interests in Syria as well as Iran, without provoking a direct response from Iran.


But the scale of the attack appeared to change Iran’s tolerance, with Iranian leaders warning that it would no longer accept Israeli strikes on Iranian interests anywhere in the region. Early on April 14, Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel, causing little damage but shocking Israelis with the scale of the attack.


Even if Iran does not respond in a similar way to Israel’s latest strike on Friday, it could still react forcefully to future Israeli attacks on Iranian assets in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East, Ms. Shine said.


That possibility became more pressing early on Friday, after the Syrian authorities said that Israel had again struck a site in Syria, at roughly the same time as its attack on Iran.


Israel did not claim responsibility for the strike, in line with its policy of not commenting on such attacks. But if the attack harmed Iranian interests, and if Iran attributes the attack to Israel, it remains unclear how Tehran will respond.


“The question is whether they will stand by their red line,” Ms. Shine said. “But what exactly is the red line? Is it only high ranking people? Is it only embassies? Or is it every Iranian target in Syria?”


Johnatan Reiss and Rawan Sheikh Ahmad contributed reporting.



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