Shadow Enemies Cause Iran Jitters

By Emil Avdaliani

Azerbaijan and Iran want to maintain pragmatic relations. Yet that’s becoming increasingly difficult.

Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan are reaching a critical point. The two neighbors have never been friendly, but pragmatism driven by growing bilateral trade and at times overlapping geopolitical imperatives often aided the search for common ground. 

This changed after the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh when Azerbaijan decisively defeated Armenia, re-established control over the lost territories, and has ever since pressed its military and economic advantage to force Armenia into a peace deal that would recognize the two countries’ territorial integrity (as currently defined). 

As one of the big three powers bordering the South Caucasus states, Iran would view Azerbaijan’s assertiveness with close interest at the best of times; the fact that it is aimed at its close friends in Armenia makes it a matter of deep concern. Iran would likely intervene should Armenia’s internationally recognized borders be challenged.

While Armenia’s southernmost Syunik corridor provides Iran with land access to the country’s capital Yerevan and Georgia to the north, it also provides the east-west route between Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhchivan. There is a lot at stake for both sides. 

That helps explain the rhetorical barrages now regularly fired between Azerbaijan and Iran. Each accuses the other of interfering in its internal affairs, while Azerbaijan has made a series of arrests of alleged pro-Iranian figures across the country.

On March 28, the Azeri MP Fazil Mustafa, widely known for his criticism of Iran, was shot and wounded outside his home. That followed a deadly attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran earlier this year, while in early April, Azerbaijan expelled four Iranian diplomats for “provocative actions”. 

Iran has chosen the dual messaging of deterrence and diplomacy. On the one hand, it talks to Azerbaijan seemingly to dial down tensions, but on the other, the Islamic Republic has upped its military game by staging exercises along its border with Azerbaijan. Much of their mutual border runs along the River Aras, making Iran’s river crossing drills particularly pointed. 

Were there to be open conflict, the stakes are high and would have broader geopolitical repercussions.  

Azerbaijan has traditionally close ties to Turkey and has lately been seen as a critical energy partner for the European Union (EU.) But it is Azerbaijan’s expanding ties with Israel that really make Iran jittery.

Baku inaugurated its embassy in Tel Aviv and on March 29 Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said he had agreed with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ceyhun Bayramov to “form a united front against Iran”, though Baku later tried to carefully distance itself from the statement. 

The two countries shared, “the same perception of the Iranian threat. The Iranian ayatollah regime threatens both our regions, finances terrorism, and destabilizes the entire Middle East.

We must act together to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear capabilities,” Cohen said. Iran demanded an explanation for the trumpeted strategic partnership between the two countries, then complained when none was received.