The 6 Signs Trump’s Iran War Is Imminent

By Newsweek Editors

The standoff between the United States and Iran is fragile, with several factors pointing to a heightened likelihood of war.

The conflict is likely to be a weekslong operation that would resemble all-out war, rather than last summer's targeted strikes, sources told Axios this week.

This leak, combined with an accelerated U.S. military buildup in the region, Iran's refusal to budge on President Donald Trump's red lines during Tuesday's talks, satellite images showing Iran fortifying key facilities, rising internal pressure inside Iran, and a dramatic move by Tehran in the Strait of Hormuz suggest war is looming.

1. Trump Sends Show of Force to Middle East

The size and speed of the U.S. military buildup stand out. Trump has ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, to the Middle East, where it will join the USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided-missile destroyers already there.

The U.S. has also moved more aircraft and naval assets into the region, and American forces recently shot down an Iranian drone that approached the Lincoln. This goes beyond routine deterrence. It puts in place the ships, planes and support needed for sustained air and naval strikes—exactly what would be required for a longer campaign against Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities.

2. 'Massive, Weekslong Campaign' Planned

The anonymous briefings to Axios describe plans for a "massive, weekslong campaign," not just precision strikes, such as those launched by Trump on Iran's nuclear facilities last summer.

That kind of language prepares the American public for a drawn-out conflict and signals to Iran that Washington is serious. It can also make escalation more likely.

3. Talks Hit Red Lines

The two sides remain far apart in talks. Indirect negotiations in Geneva, mediated by Oman, have shown limited progress. Vice President JD Vance said the discussions this week went well "in some ways," but made clear that Trump has set "red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through."

The biggest sticking points are uranium enrichment and Iran’s missile program. Tehran insists it has the right to enrich uranium on its own soil and has resisted calls to give up stockpiles enriched to 60 percent purity, just below weapons-grade.

4. Iran Fortifies Key Facilities

Recent satellite imagery, published on Wednesday by Reuters, show that Iran has been quietly repairing and fortifying key facilities, suggesting Tehran is preparing for conflict even as diplomacy continues.

Analysts examining Planet Labs and other commercial satellite photos have observed new roofs and concealment structures being built over damaged buildings at major nuclear sites such as Natanz and Isfahan, potentially to obscure activity from international observers and assess whether valuable equipment or enriched uranium survived last year’s strikes. Some tunnel entrances appear reinforced, and missile bases struck in the conflict have been repaired.

5. Iran Unrest Rattles Leadership

Iran’s leadership is also contending with mounting pressure at home. Years of sanctions, deepening economic hardship, currency instability and recurring waves of public unrest have strained the political system and eroded public confidence. Inflation remains high, purchasing power has fallen and frustration has spilled into the streets, leading to the authorities launching brutal crackdowns.

That domestic strain is shaping Tehran’s external posture. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued stark warnings, arguing that even the world’s strongest military can be dealt a crippling blow and signaling that Iran has the capability to strike U.S. naval assets if attacked. Yet at the same time, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has adopted a more measured tone, saying a "new window has opened" for diplomacy in ongoing talks.

The contrast reflects a leadership walking a tightrope: projecting strength to deter adversaries and reassure hard-liners at home, while keeping open the possibility of negotiations that could ease economic pressure.

6. Strait of Hormuz Closed for First Time Since 1980s

Iran’s closed the Strait of Hormuz for live-fire drills on Tuesday in a dramatic move that was the first announced closure of the key waterway since the 1980s. About 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the strait. Iranian forces fired live missiles and restricted traffic for several hours, citing safety concerns.

Even if short-lived, the move was a clear warning: any conflict would have global economic consequences. If Iran were attacked, it could retaliate in ways that disrupt energy markets.

The drills took place as U.S. and Iranian officials were meeting in Geneva. Oil prices briefly rose on fears of escalation before easing on hopes that talks might continue. Gulf Arab states have warned that any strike could trigger a wider regional war, especially after last year’s 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran.

Moment of High Risk

These six factors indicate a moment of high risk. U.S. forces are moving into position, while diplomacy is stuck on core issues.

Prediction markets are also signaling elevated expectations of military action this year. On the Polymarket platform, the probability of a U.S. or Israeli strike by June 30 is currently around 71 percent.

Kalshi prediction markets are not optimistic a deal will be reached: the chances of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal before August are listed as just 30 percent—and falling.

War is not certain. Talks are still under way, and both sides say they prefer a deal. But the warning signs of all-out conflict are stronger than they have been in years.