The Dangerous Stalemate Over Iran’s Nuclear Program

With no negotiations, no oversight and no clarity about Iran’s stock of nuclear material, many in the region fear another war with Israel is inevitable.

By Steven Erlanger

President Trump insists that U.S. strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment program this summer, but regional officials and analysts have become less convinced in the months since, and they warn another outbreak of war between Israel and Iran is only a matter of time.

The 2015 deal intended to limit Iran’s nuclear enrichment expired last month. Tough sanctions on Iran have been restored. Negotiations on its nuclear program appear to be dead, at least for now. And Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, enough to make 11 nuclear weapons, is either buried under rubble, as Iran claims, or has been spirited away to a safe place, as Israeli officials believe.

Iran also appears to be continuing to work on a new enrichment site known as Pickaxe Mountain. It has refused to give international inspectors access to that site or any other suspected nuclear sites other than those already declared.

The result is a dangerous stalemate — with no negotiations, no certainty over Iran’s stockpile, no independent oversight. And many in the Gulf believe that makes another Israeli attack on Iran almost inevitable, given Israeli officials’ long-held view that Iran’s nuclear program is an existential threat.

Iran is likely to respond to any Israeli attack in a far less restrained way than it did in June, said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. Iranian officials have told him that missile factories are working 24 hours a day, he said, and if there is another war, “they hope to fire 2,000 at once to overwhelm Israeli defenses, not 500 over 12 days” as they did in June.

There is no evidence that a new attack is imminent. But “Israel feels the job is unfinished and sees no reason not to resume the conflict, so Iran is doubling down preparedness for the next round,” he said.

Iran is more isolated from the West than it has been in decades. Arab regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have enhanced their influence over Washington and Mr. Trump, partly through economic ties and partly through their willingness to work with the United States to try to find a lasting settlement to the Gaza war. The new president of Syria is headed to the White House on Monday to seek American support. Syria had been a strategic ally of Iran’s under the Assad government that collapsed last year.

At the same time, those regional powers are working to preserve their own relationships with Iran, said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. They do not want another regional war, and they respect Iran’s ability, however weakened, to create instability through its own military forces and through proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, the Persian Gulf and elsewhere, she said.

“Iran is weaker than at any point since the U.S. invasion of Iraq, but not so weak as to be irrelevant,” said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and the director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution. “A weaker Iran is easier for the Gulf States to engage and keep close because Iran, in its desperation, could become more dangerous.”

Israeli officials have warned since June that they are prepared to attack Iran again if it moves closer to producing a nuclear weapon, an intention Iran has always denied. The Israelis recognize that Iran’s nuclear program has been degraded but not destroyed, partly because Mr. Trump stopped the June war sooner than Israel wanted.

“Israel wants to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program is contained, and they won’t get it through negotiations, so I suspect the Israelis intend to strike again,” said H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate at the Center for American Progress in Washington and at London’s Royal United Services Institute. “The Iranians are rebuilding, but once they are past a certain line, Israel will attack again.”

The Arab states are also eager to work with Mr. Trump to ensure some restraints on Israel, which has ambitions to be a regional hegemon after devastating Gaza, Hamas and Hezbollah and damaging Iran. Arab officials are encouraging new nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, but with little optimism for now.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Tuesday that American hostility to Iran is deep-seated.

“America’s arrogant nature accepts nothing but surrender,” he said in an address to mark the anniversary of the takeover of the American Embassy in Tehran on Nov. 4, 1979.

His remarks seemed designed to block any new negotiations with the United States on Iran’s nuclear program.

Last week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of Iran said that Washington had offered “unacceptable and impossible conditions,” including direct talks and a complete, verifiable halt to Iran’s enrichment of uranium. He again rejected direct talks and an end to enrichment.

But he repeated that Iran remained open to indirect talks under certain conditions. They include a guarantee of no further military attacks or economic pressure and compensation for war damage, demands Washington is unwilling to accept. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Mr. Araghchi also warned Israel of “dire consequences” for any future attack.

With the diplomatic deadlock, a debate is underway in Iran about how to move forward, with few good options, Mr. Vaez said. Some Iranian officials want to compromise and make a deal with Mr. Trump. They argue that Iran cannot even keep the lights on, and that further resistance plays into Israel’s hands and could break the Iranian government given pressure from below.

Others favor confrontation, he said, believing it impossible to deal with Mr. Trump, who pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal and angered Iran yet again by bombing it to help Israel in the middle of another set of nuclear negotiations.

But both camps consider another round of confrontation with Israel inevitable, he said. “So the country is doubling down on preparedness for the next round, and they want it to produce a new equilibrium that will wipe out the sense of Iranian weakness,” Mr. Vaez said.

Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told The Financial Times last week that the organization believes that the majority of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium survived the war, but that its status is unclear without inspections. He estimated that Iran has roughly 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, which is close to weapons grade.

Currently, the region’s Arab nations are focused on Gaza, Mr. Vaez said. While a nuclear Iran remains a concern, the Saudis are trying to enhance their security with a mutual defense treaty with Pakistan, signed in September, and hopes for U.S. security guarantees like Qatar got after Israel bombed Hamas leaders there, prompting Mr. Trump’s fury.

There are nuances in the regional positions, Ms. Vakil argued. The perception of Iranian weakness and retreat translates into an opportunity to get Tehran to step back from support for its proxies in a more formal way. The Gulf States are thinking of the longer term, she said.

“There is a window of opportunity for more compromises with Iran weaker and more isolated,” she said. “And there is worry that in another round of the Iran-Israel war, Iran would be less restrained.”

Steven Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe and is based in Berlin. He has reported from over 120 countries, including Thailand, France, Israel, Germany and the former Soviet Union.