Trump declares victory as Iran, Israel acknowledge shaky ceasefire

by arak Ravid, & Zachary Basu

The Trump-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel has, for now, brought an abrupt and extraordinary end to one of the Middle East's most explosive confrontations in decades.

Why it matters: The 12-day war sent shockwaves through a region already reeling from nearly two years of historic volatility and violence, beginning with Hamas' Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel.

President Trump's military intervention to destroy Iranian nuclear sites brought the U.S. to the precipice of a major conflict that four of his predecessors had sought to avoid.

• But it also set the stage for a ceasefire that — if it holds — could usher in a fundamentally new era for the Middle East, its security and its dominant powers.

State of play: Israel is accusing Iran of breaking the ceasefire. For several hours before the ceasefire came into effect — and for several minutes after — Iran fired missile barrages at Israel that killed civilians, threatening to upend Trump's deal.

• After Trump announced on social media at 6:02pm ET that Israel and Iran had agreed to a "Complete and Total CEASEFIRE." Iranian state TV eventually said the ceasefire was in effect.

• Around 2am ET, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Iran in coordination with Trump.

Behind the scenes: Trump's efforts to end the war began in earnest on Saturday, shortly after U.S. B-2 bombers launched 14 massive bunker-buster bombs that almost completely destroyed Iran's three main nuclear facilities.

• The president instructed envoy Steve Witkoff to communicate to the Iranians his desire to negotiate a deal to end the war, according to a White House official.

• Iran initially refused to engage and said diplomacy would be possible only after it exacted revenge by striking U.S. targets, a source with direct knowledge said.

But prior to launching Monday's missile attack on the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Iran sent messages to the U.S. — via Qatar — conveying when and what targets they intended to strike, a White House official said.

• Immediately after the strike, which left no casualties, the Iranians sent another back-channel message notifying the White House that they would not conduct any further attacks on U.S. targets.

• The White House responded — again via the Qataris — saying the U.S. would not retaliate to the Iranian attack and reiterating its readiness to resume negotiations.

On Monday evening, when it became clear the Iranian strike on Al-Udeid was over, Trump called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and told him he wanted the war to end, the White House official said.

• Netanyahu agreed to the ceasefire and said Israel would not conduct any more strikes as long as Iran stopped launching missiles, the White House official said.

• Trump spoke with the emir of Qatar and Vice President Vance spoke with the Qatari prime minister, who then relayed the message to Iran and finalized the terms of the ceasefire — including the time it would begin.

When it was all agreed, Trump announced the ceasefire in a post on Truth Social with his signature bombast.

• "I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, "THE 12 DAY WAR." Trump wrote Monday evening.

• "This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!"

The big picture: The surprise war Israel launched against Iran on June 13 dealt a final blow to the so-called "Axis of Resistance," a network of Iranian-backed groups that have long targeted U.S. and Israeli interests throughout the region.

• As a direct and indirect result of Israeli action, Hamas' military capabilities were decimated, Hezbollah was significantly degraded, the Assad regime in Syria collapsed, and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq were effectively deterred.

• Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — still believed to be hiding in a bunker — now faces the loss of his top military leadership, the near-total destruction of his nuclear program, the deaths of key nuclear scientists, the elimination of half his ballistic missile force, and the near-collapse of his air defenses.

Zoom in: The war ended with Iran at its weakest point since its devastating eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s.

• Israeli and U.S. officials both claim that it will take Iran years to rebuild its military power, reestablish its proxy network and restore its deterrence.

• Iran's nuclear program, meanwhile, has likely been set back by years — and now faces the threat of further U.S. and Israeli military action if the regime seeks to rebuild it.

Between the lines: A White House official argued that it was the U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities that ultimately created the conditions for ending the war.

• "The Iranians understood Trump wasn't playing games and the Israelis were grateful that Trump did something they couldn't do on their own — and couldn't say no when he asked them to stop," the White House official said.

• The official said the Iranians wanted to end the war because "they couldn't take it anymore" — and that the U.S. is confident Iran's nuclear facilities and enriched uranium stockpile have been destroyed.

• "They don't have any ability to build a nuclear weapon now," the White House official claimed.

The bottom line: Trump's achievement is especially significant because the U.S. appears to have avoided a prolonged war in the Middle East — a scenario he feared and his MAGA supporters loathed.

• For a self-styled deal-maker who has struggled to end the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza — and who heads to the NATO summit on Tuesday — the Iran-Israel ceasefire would represent a massive success in his doctrine of "peace through strength."

• Expect a major victory tour by Trump and his allies in the coming weeks and months — one that is sure to feature lobbying for the Nobel Peace Prize he has long coveted.