White House loses trust in Israeli government as Middle East spirals

By Barak Ravid

The Biden administration has in recent weeks grown increasingly distrustful of what the Israeli government says about its military and diplomatic plans in the multi-front war it is fighting, four U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The worsening trust crisis is magnified by Israel's planned retaliation against Iran for its massive missile attack, which requires coordination with the U.S. in case Iran responds.

• The Biden administration isn't opposed to Israel responding to the Iranian attack last week but wants it to be measured, U.S. officials said.

• "Our trust of the Israelis is very low right now and for a good reason," one U.S. official said.

Behind the scenes: Two U.S. officials told Axios that during a call on Friday White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told Israel's minister for strategic affairs Ron Dermer that the U.S. expects "clarity and transparency" from Israel about its plans to retaliate against Iran because it will have implications for U.S. forces and interests in the region.

• Sullivan was signaling that if the U.S. doesn't know what the Israelis are planning to do, it wouldn't automatically be on board to help defeat another Iranian missile attack against Israel, one official said.

• The U.S. officials admit that the U.S. would very likely help Israel defend itself regardless.

• The officials said Dermer stressed that Israel wants to coordinate with the U.S., but they added that the Biden administration questions how much it can trust that to be the case.

• Another U.S. official said the discussions with the Israeli government regarding Iran have been constructive.

• The White House declined to comment. The Israeli Embassy in Washington, DC didn't respond to a request for comment.

Driving the news: U.S. officials say the Biden administration has been surprised several times recently by Israeli military or intelligence operations.

• In some cases, the U.S. wasn't consulted or notified in advance. Or, it was given a heads up as Israeli jets were already on their way to conduct an airstrike somewhere in the Middle East.

• The Israelis didn't tell the Biden administration in advance about the dramatic move to assassinate Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

• Moreover, it took place several days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Biden in the Oval Office that he was going to take steps to make progress toward a deal with Hamas to release the hostages they are holding and establish a ceasefire in Gaza.

The U.S. was also in the dark about Israel's plans to remotely detonate pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon and the assassination of the militia's leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.

• U.S. officials said Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was fuming when his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant told him about the Nasrallah assassination minutes before the Israeli jets dropped their bombs over Beirut.

• Austin saw it as a breach of trust by Gallant because the late notification didn't allow the Pentagon to take measures to protect U.S. forces in the region, U.S. officials said.

• Israeli officials said Gallant told Austin he was ordered by Netanyahu not to notify the U.S. in advance.

Another case that fueled distrust and suspicion in the White House was Netanyahu's flip-flop about the U.S.-led ceasefire initiative in Lebanon.

• Biden announced the initiative after his advisers understood from Netanyahu and Dermer that Israel was on board, only to have the Israelis backtrack.

• A senior Israeli official told Axios Netanyahu didn't backtrack on what he told the U.S. and claimed the reason for what happened was a misunderstandings between the parties.

• "We understood Biden's call for ceasefire was a beginning of a process and not something immediate. There was a mix up but we set the record straight," the Israeli official said.

The latest: In recent days, the Biden administration raised questions with Israel about an order by Israel Defense Forces for Palestinian civilians in northern Gaza to evacuate south.

• U.S. officials said they are concerned this is a preparation for an Israeli siege on northern Gaza and that the Palestinians who leave won't be able to come back.

• The Biden administration told the Israelis such a move would be a violation of international law and of U.S. laws, U.S. officials said.

• U.S. officials said the Israelis told them they don't intend to permanently displace Palestinians from northern Gaza or impose a siege on the area and that it was a temporary IDF operation.

• But U.S. officials told Axios they don't know if they believe the Israelis. "They tell us what we want to hear — the problem is lack of trust," one U.S. official said.

What to watch: CENTCOM commander Gen. Michael Kurilla visited Israel on Saturday and Sunday and met with IDF chief of staff Gen. Herzi Halevi and Gallant to be briefed about Israel's plans for a response against Iran.

• Gallant told Austin in a phone call on Sunday that Israel hasn't made a final decision about the timing and the scope of its retaliation against Iran, a U.S. official said.

• The Israeli defense minister will arrive in Washington on Wednesday for a 24-hour visit and is expected to meet Austin and Sullivan to coordinate and discuss the plans for a potential Israeli strike on Iran.

• "The Biden administration understands we are a sovereign country, but they want to give their input. We are going to respond to the Iranian attack. There is no question about it. But we will not do it in a way that will start an all-out war with Iran," a senior Israeli official said.