Gulf braced for escalation of war between US-Israel alliance and Iran

Diplomats warn that renewed conflict would be even more damaging than previous rounds of fighting

by Chloe Cornish in Manama, Andrew England in London and Ahmed Al Omran in Jeddah

Top Middle East diplomats have warned that a threatened escalation of war between the US and Iran would probably be even more damaging than the previous rounds of the conflict, which have destabilised the region and caused turmoil in international energy markets. 

“We are very confident that . . . the second round will be more dangerous, more destructive and it will lead to nowhere,” said Egyptian foreign minister Badr Abdelatty on Saturday. “We are extremely worried,” he added.

In Saudi Arabia, authorities on Saturday mandated remote learning for schools nationwide as missile and drone attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen continued to target the kingdom. The Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis on Sunday said it intercepted a ballistic missile and a drone launched by the Houthis towards the kingdom’s southern region. 

Qatar is leading regional efforts to mediate an interim deal between the US and Iran ahead of US midterm elections on Tuesday. Iranian officials spent Saturday and Sunday in Doha for talks with mediators after a Qatari delegation visited Tehran on Friday. 

Prices for Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, slipped 3.3 per cent to $109.7 a barrel on Monday on reports that US President Donald Trump had pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to continue with diplomacy.

Trump told reporters he had a “very good” talk with Netanyahu, including about Iran, but gave no further details. There is concern in Iran and across the region that Trump and Netanyahu are planning to launch a new intense phase of the war after Americans vote on Tuesday, with the expectation that it would target Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, power plants and other infrastructure. 

Iran has promised a fierce response, prompting fears in the Gulf that the region’s energy sites and other civilian infrastructure, from airports to desalination plants, would again be targeted.  Gulf states also worry that a new wave of Iranian attacks would further erode investor and traveller confidence in the region. 

Trade and transport in the region have already been disrupted by Iran’s attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for energy exports and a key regional supply route, while Gulf states have suffered waves of Iranian drone and missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure.

Anwar Gargash, a top United Arab Emirates diplomat, said on Sunday that the US and Iranian stances were still far apart, and “if these positions are not bridged then we have to worry about the worst”. 

The region is “braced for the worst”, the UAE’s diplomatic adviser to the president added, asserting that it was ready “to protect our achievements, our development model, our country, our citizens and people who are resident here”. 

Both Gargash and Abdelatty were speaking at the IISS Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain.  Iran has targeted civilian infrastructure and US military bases in the oil-rich Arab Gulf states both directly and via allies such as the Houthis, as it sought to raise the cost of the conflict on the global economy and American allies in the region. 

Recommended Middle East war The Gulf braces for new strikes against Iran The UAE bore the brunt of Iranian missile and drone attacks in March, as Iran responded to the US-Israeli attacks by targeting Gulf states.

Another wave of escalation in the summer, again following US strikes on Iran, mostly targeted Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. 

The Islamic republic’s supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has warned that it would retaliate “without any geographical limitations” to fresh US-Israel attacks.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said last week that while Iran’s military was “fully prepared to defend the homeland, Iran continued to give diplomacy a chance to succeed”.