Lavrov In Tehran Amid Questions Over Whether Moscow Is Helping Iran In War With US

By Kian Sharifi

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Tehran on October 19 for talks with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi and a meeting with President Masud Pezeshkian amid questions over what support Moscow is providing Iran to fight its war with the United States.

Lavrov traveled to the Iranian capital directly from Manama, where he had attended a meeting with Gulf Cooperation Council officials. Gulf states have urged Moscow to use its influence to press Tehran to halt attacks on its neighbors.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei said the visit was intended to follow up on bilateral agreements. Moscow said the talks would focus on the regional crisis, which it blames on the United States and Israel, as well as on trade, energy, and transport projects.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told Pezeshkian earlier this month that Moscow was prepared to contribute to mediation efforts to help bring the war to an end.

But what's not on the public agenda will be the focus of much of the world. After battling a much more powerful adversary for almost eight months, questions about how much support Iran is getting from Russia -- which has never directly entered the war -- and in what form have simmered.

They came to a boil, however, on October 18 when US President Donald Trump said in a social media post that Russia is doing “very little, if anything, to help the Islamic Republic of Iran” compared to what it could do.

That came after he wrote earlier in the week on social media that he did not believe either Moscow nor Beijing were helping Iran “at all.”

"If they are, ‌it's at a very low level, but ‌I ⁠don't believe they are ⁠at all. They have too much to lose, and we would know about it, and know about it very fast," Trump wrote.

Trump's October 18 comment was made as part of his justification to waive sweeping sanctions planned against Russia, saying it could drive the Kremlin away from negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

The Trump administration recently waived sanctions on Russian diesel exports, drawing bipartisan condemnation, as well as raising the ire of Ukraine and many of its international partners.

'Russian Support Has Been There'

Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the Belgium-based International Crisis Group, told RFE/RL that while it's true Moscow has withheld heavy weaponry and deals for jets such as the Su-35 fighters have stalled, Russia has still provided Iran with military intelligence enabling “precision strikes against US bases” and helped improve Iranian-made systems, including Shahed drones, through continued military-technical cooperation.

“So, it really depends on how you define support, but Russian support has been there, and it has had a tangible impact,” Azizi said.

Several analysts point to one incident they say shows how important Russia's support for Iran is.

In March, Iran attacked the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia that wounded 12 American troops.

Experts noted its unusual precision was likely aided by Russian intelligence. Reports then surfaced that two days before the strike, 14 Russian spy satellites passed over the base. Later, US officials concluded that information from Moscow made the precision attack possible.

A senior EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak on the record, told RFE/RL that Russian assistance to Iran has always been limited because its war against Ukraine has stretched Moscow’s resources.

The official said there was “no sign at all that they are limiting it further” and described Trump's comment as "propaganda to somehow explain to the [US] public why he [is] soft on Russia and bullying Ukraine.”

Intelligence, Drones, And Missiles

Since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, media reports citing US, European, and Ukrainian officials have described growing Russian support for Tehran.

Several media outlets have cited people familiar with US intelligence that Russia has been passing Iran information on the locations and movements of US troops, warships, and aircraft -- much of it satellite imagery.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Kyiv had evidence that Russia was providing Iran with signals and electronic intelligence.

According to Andrea Kendall-Taylor, senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, and Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, "Russia’s support for Tehran has been operationally meaningful but carefully bounded."

"Even as it fights its own war in Ukraine, Moscow has found ways to help Iran strike American targets and sustain the fight through diplomatic cover and material support while stopping short of actions that could draw Russia into direct conflict with the United States," they wrote in an analysis in Foreign Affairs last week.

Amir Chahaki, an analyst based in Germany, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Putin wants to use Iran as leverage in his dealings with Trump in return for the US applying pressure on Ukraine.

“The more Putin can persuade Tehran to move closer to Trump’s demands, the more concessions he can extract from Trump," he said.

With reporting by Elaheh Ravanshad of RFE/RL's Radio Farda

• Kian Sharifi is a feature writer specializing in Iranian affairs in RFE/RL's Central Newsroom in Prague. He got his start in journalism at the Financial Tribune, an English-language newspaper published in Tehran, where he worked as an editor. He then moved to BBC Monitoring, where he led a team of journalists who closely watched media trends and analyzed key developments in Iran and the wider region.