Democracy Dies with Dictatorship
NY Times
Jul 9, 2026
Live Updates: U.S. and Iran Sink Into Violent Cycle After Latest Strikes
Attacks on ships were followed by new U.S. strikes on Iran, which responded by firing at Gulf nations. The pattern of hostilities has all but collapsed a cease-fire, with little sign that either side will step back.
by Tyler Pager Shirin Hakim and Euan Ward
Here’s the latest.
The United States and Iran exchanged fire for a second consecutive night on Thursday, extending a pattern of hostilities that has all but collapsed their fragile truce and left the Middle East neither at war nor at peace.
Since last month’s cease-fire, periods of uneasy calm have been punctured by attacks on commercial shipping, blamed on Iran, which are followed by retaliatory American and Iranian strikes, more threats, conflicting signals over negotiations, then another uneasy pause. That cycle repeated itself overnight, with little immediate sign that either is prepared to step back.
Hours before the strikes, President Trump said further talks on a long-term peace deal were “a waste of time.” Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned, “Hit, and you’ll be hit.”
As oil markets wobbled, mediators scrambled yet again to prevent further escalation. Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, spoke to Iran’s foreign minister and condemned the attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has sought to control.
In the latest flare-up of fighting, the U.S. military said overnight that it had struck around 90 targets in Iran in an effort to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial ships in the strait. Iran’s military said it had responded with drone and missile strikes at American military targets in Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, Gulf nations that have been repeatedly hit in the conflict. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps threatened to expand its attacks to other American bases in the region, according to a statement carried on Iranian state media.
The Iranian authorities said that American strikes had hit a stretch of railway connecting Tehran to the northeastern city of Mashhad, where Iran’s slain supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was expected to be buried later on Thursday. The U.S. military did not immediately comment on the claim.
Railway authorities said that buses would carry stranded passengers the rest of the way. The burial on Thursday follows days of funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes at the start of the war. The events have been meticulously stage-managed by Tehran across several cities to project national unity and defiance to Iran’s enemies.
Mr. Trump said at a NATO summit in Turkey on Wednesday that the cease-fire was “over.” Hours later, as he flew back to the United States, he said that Iran had called because they “want to make a deal so badly.” Iran has not signaled that any new negotiations are underway.
Here’s what else to know:
Energy markets: Oil prices remained elevated after the latest round of fighting. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at around $78 a barrel on Thursday, down from its peak during the war but above its pre-conflict level of around $72. Read more ›
Funeral delays: The burial of Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s late supreme leader, in the holy city of Mashhad was delayed by several hours on Thursday. The Iranian authorities said that large crowds in the Iraqi cities of Najaf and Karbala, where hundreds of thousands had gathered for the funeral procession on Wednesday, had led to the delay.
Reprieve for Syria: The Trump administration notified Congress on Wednesday of plans to rescind the designation of Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. President Trump met with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, on Wednesday at the NATO summit said he would lift the designation, which would open up more international trade for the country.
July 9, 2026, 7:16 a.m. ET39 minutes ago
Reporting from Dubai, United Arab Emirates
In Jordan, sirens sounded “following the breach of the kingdom’s airspace by missiles launched from Iran,” a Jordanian government spokesman said in a statement carried by the state news media. The missiles were intercepted, said Mohammed al-Momani, the spokesman.
July 9, 2026, 6:34 a.m. ET1 hour ago
Abdi Latif Dahir and Leo Sands
Abdi Latif Dahir reported from Mashhad, Iran
The last stage of Ayatollah Khamenei’s weeklong funeral is delayed.
The final stage of the funeral procession for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, was delayed by several hours on Thursday in his hometown, the holy city of Mashhad, after days of public ceremonies that drew hundreds of thousands of mourners in Iran and Iraq.
The delay was because of large crowds on Wednesday in the Iraqi cities of Najaf and Karbala, Iranian state media reported on Thursday, hours after a new round of strikes between the United States and Iran. Iranian officials said that U.S. forces had struck two railway bridges on the line between Tehran, the capital, and Mashhad overnight, disrupting passenger services.
The U.S. military did not say whether it had struck the bridges. But the delay, and the apparent disruption for travelers, cast a shadow over the tightly organized funeral program, which Iran has sought to present as a show of defiance against the United States.
On Thursday, tens of thousands of mourners gathered before dawn in Mashhad, in northeastern Iran, filling streets, mosques and the sprawling Imam Reza Shrine, where his body will be buried.
Iran’s state broadcaster, IRIB, reported that the funeral procession through the city would begin at 2 p.m. local time, eight hours later than planned.
The United States and Iran have ratcheted up their hostilities this week, trading strikes for a second consecutive night after President Trump said on Wednesday that he thought their cease-fire was “over.”
Iranian railway officials said that because of the attack on the railway line, buses would take stranded passengers to Mashhad instead. The authorities had previously said they expected over a million people to attend the final day of the funeral.
U.S. Central Command did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the bridges.
On Wednesday, a convoy carried Ayatollah Khamenei’s coffin through the streets in Najaf and Karbala, where hundreds of thousands of mourners prayed and weeped for the Shiite Muslim cleric. Iraq is home to the Middle East’s second-largest Shiite Muslim population after Iran.
Crowds began arriving in Mashhad late Wednesday, streaming into the holy city from across Iran and abroad. Long after midnight, the streets around the shrine were packed with people waving Iranian flags, chanting religious slogans and commemorating the life of Ayatollah Khamenei.
Inside the Imam Reza Shrine, one of the holiest sites in Shiite Islam, thousands of worshipers kept vigil through the night. Some recited verses from the Quran while others prayed quietly in groups. Families spread blankets and thin carpets across the shrine’s vast courtyards and nearby sidewalks, sleeping where they could as they waited for the funeral ceremonies to begin at daybreak.
As the sun rose, the crowds swelled. Imam Reza Boulevard, the main avenue leading to the shrine, was closed to traffic and transformed into a sea of mourners. With temperatures climbing quickly, many sought shelter beneath tents or in narrow strips of shade cast by buildings and trees. Volunteers distributed tea and bottled water as giant screens broadcast live images from inside the shrine.
Iran’s leaders hoped the funeral would serve as a show of unity to rally supporters and warn adversaries and potential dissidents of its strengths, said Ali Ansari, a professor of Iranian history at the University of St. Andrews.
But he said that the resumption of hostilities undermined the Iranian government’s narrative that it had won the war, a message it wanted to reinforce with the funeral. “They wanted to present it as resolved in their favor,” he said.
On Wednesday, Mr. Trump had told reporters at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, that the Iranians authorities had requested a “time out” from the conflict during the funeral proceedings.
But earlier this week, the long-simmering tensions over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway that both Iran and the United States said would be reopened following last month’s preliminary cease-fire deal, boiled over. Central Command accused Iranian forces of attacking commercial ships in the strait and said it hit almost 100 Iranian military targets in response.
The gatherings in Mashhad underscored both the religious and political significance of Ayatollah Khamenei’s death. Pilgrims and mourners had traveled not only from across Iran but also from countries with large Shiite populations, including Iraq, Pakistan and India, as well as Senegal and Nigeria.
For many, the funeral marked the passing of one of the most influential figures in modern Shiite Islam. For the Iranian government, it was also seen as an opportunity to project an image of unity and resilience at a time of renewed U.S. strikes on the country.
Shawn McCreesh contributed reporting from Ankara, Turkey.
July 9, 2026, 5:39 a.m. ET2 hours ago
Reporting from Dubai, United Arab Emirates
In Kuwait, one person was injured in the Iranian attacks on Thursday, Kuwait’s defense ministry said.
The ministry said it had intercepted three ballistic missiles, a cruise missile and 10 drones during the latest attacks.
July 9, 2026, 5:16 a.m. ET3 hours ago
Reporting from Dubai, United Arab Emirates
The prime minister of Qatar, a key mediator in talks between Iran and the U.S., held a phone call on Wednesday with Iran’s foreign minister and condemned attacks targeting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
The prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, “emphasized that such actions undermine confidence” and “damage efforts aimed at consolidating regional security and stability,” according to a statement released by the Qatari state news agency.
Earlier Thursday, Iran’s military said it had struck a target in Qatar, according to Iran’s state broadcaster.
Days before the call between Al Thani and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Qatar blamed Iran for a strike on a Qatari tanker.
July 9, 2026, 4:56 a.m. ET3 hours ago
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Trump administration had notified Congress of plans to rescind the designation of Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism. This follows a 45-day pro-notification period. President Trump met with the leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Shara, on Wednesday in Ankara, Turkey, and said that he would lift the designation. The move would open up more international trade for Syria.
July 9, 2026, 4:26 a.m. ET3 hours ago
Reporting from Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Bahrain’s interior ministry has sent warning alerts to residents and sounded emergency sirens in some parts of the country for the third time today, without saying what triggered them.
July 9, 2026, 3:53 a.m. ET4 hours ago
Euan Ward and Leily Nikounazar
Iran’s health ministry said on Thursday that U.S. strikes over the past two days had killed at least 14 people and wounded 78 others. The figure, published by the state news agency IRNA, could not be independently verified.
July 9, 2026, 2:37 a.m. ET5 hours ago
Bahrain’s military says it intercepted and destroyed a number of drones and missiles after Iran launched “treacherous” attacks early Thursday.
July 9, 2026, 2:15 a.m. ET6 hours ago
The U.S. military early Thursday struck a point on the railway line connecting Tehran, Iran’s capital, and the northeastern city of Mashhad, disrupting passenger service on the route, Iranian railway authorities said in a statement published by state media. Repairs are underway, the statement said, without providing details about what had been damaged.
Earlier on Thursday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said U.S. forces had hit two bridges in eastern Iran, without specifying whether the targets were rail or road links.
July 9, 2026, 1:26 a.m. ET6 hours ago
Oil prices remain elevated amid slowdown in shipping traffic in the Gulf.
Oil prices remained above prewar levels on Thursday, as U.S. and Iranian military forces traded strikes around the Persian Gulf for a second straight day.
And fresh data showed that the number of ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz halved on Wednesday amid renewed fighting, imperiling a nascent recovery in ship traffic.
President Trump said the latest U.S. attacks, which targeted around 90 sites along Iran’s coast, were “retribution” for Iran’s attacks on commercial ships in the strait, a vital waterway for the region’s energy exports. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator in peace talks, said that the strait “will open only under Iranian arrangements, not American threats.”
The International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency, recently urged shipowners and operators to avoid sending their ships through the strait, which had only recently begun to see an uptick in traffic after a cease-fire agreement between the United States and Iran was signed last month. Mr. Trump said on Wednesday that he thought the three-week-old agreement was “over,” although he later suggested that Iran was open to making a deal. Iran has said nothing about new negotiations.
A recovery in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz looks shaky.
On Wednesday, just 25 ships passed through the strait in both directions, according to Kpler, a maritime data company, down from 49 the day before. That figure is more than during the peak of the war, when only a handful of vessels braved the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman each day, but significantly down from prewar levels of more than 130 ships per day.
Many of the vessels that went through the strait this week used the Iranian corridor, which the authorities in Tehran have insisted is the only viable route. The middle of the strait is considered dangerous by shipowners because of the risk of mines laid by Iran’s military. Only one ship that transited on Wednesday took the Omani route, through which the U.S. Navy is providing guidance. Overall volumes of traffic were difficult to assess because many ships have turned off their location tracking devices.
“It’s in neither side’s interests for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to grind to a complete standstill for a sustained period,” said Ben May, the director of global macro research at Oxford Economics. It was too soon to say whether turmoil in the strait would continue to push up oil prices, he added, “as it’s probable the cease-fire continues to be on and off.”
Oil prices remain above prewar levels.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, hovered between small price rises and declines on Thursday at about $78 per barrel. Before this week’s outbreak of fighting, prices had slipped to $70 a barrel, dipping slightly below their prewar level.
West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. oil benchmark, slipped slightly to $73 a barrel. This grade of crude traded at $67 per barrel before the war.
Gasoline prices don’t move in lock step with crude oil. The U.S. national average price of gas jumped 5 cents to $3.85 a gallon on Thursday, according to the AAA motor club. That is 29 percent higher than it was on the eve of the war in late February. The price of diesel rose 4 cents to $4.81 a gallon.
“The past few days’ price action makes one thing clear: markets were far too relaxed about the risks surrounding the deal — and far too bullish on how quickly regional supply could rebound,” Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, commodity strategists at ING, wrote in a research report.
Stocks and bonds fluctuate as investors fret about inflation.
Futures for the S&P 500 wavered between small gains and losses in premarket trading, ahead of what looks to be another volatile day of trading when markets open in New York. The benchmark U.S. stock index closed with a small loss on Wednesday, after a choppy day in which the VIX volatility index, known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” hit its highest level in two weeks.
Stocks in Asia were mixed, with Japan and South Korea posting gains but Hong Kong trading lower. Stocks in Europe were up, regaining some of the ground lost after a deep decline the day before.
The recent rise in oil prices has stoked unease among bond investors about inflation, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumping to nearly 4.6 percent, its highest level since May. (Bond yields move inversely to prices.) Officials at the Federal Reserve have signaled support for raising interest rates if inflation does not decelerate, according to the minutes of their most recent meeting.
Investors are also getting to grips with the economic effects of the war in Iran. On Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its forecast for global economic growth this year.
July 9, 2026, 12:03 a.m. ET8 hours ago
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said early Thursday that in response to the latest U.S. strikes, it had launched drones and missiles at American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The statement, published by Iranian state media, said U.S. forces had also targeted two bridges in eastern Iran, and warned that if there were more strikes on Iran, the retaliation would expand to other American bases in the region.
July 9, 2026, 12:00 a.m. ET8 hours ago
News Analysis
Tanker attacks risk overplaying Iran’s hand, analysts say.
Iran, fearing that its hold over the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes was gradually slipping away, risked overplaying its hand by again firing on oil tankers and potentially rekindling a major war with the United States, analysts said.
Both sides threatened on Wednesday to scuttle the Memorandum of Understanding that they had signed on June 17 to establish a blueprint for peace talks and extended a wobbly cease-fire in place since April. American warplanes carried out even more intensive attacks on scores of targets across Iran overnight, while Iran vowed to ratchet up drone and missile strikes against U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf.
The basic bargain in the vaguely worded, 14-point Memorandum of Understanding was that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping in exchange for badly needed economic relief. Thornier issues, including the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, were kicked down the road for further negotiations. But very little changed.
“The M.O.U. increasingly looked like a mirage,” said Vali Nasr, a veteran Iran analyst and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “The view from Tehran is that the U.S. is engaged in a concerted effort to take control of the Strait out of Iran’s hands, to weaken its position in Lebanon and to regain its own strength in order to put even more pressure on Iran or to go back to war.”
As the 60-day clock on the agreement ticked away, Iran grew increasingly frustrated that the U.S. Navy was encouraging maritime traffic to take a southern route along the coast of Oman rather than respecting Iranian demands that all traffic register with its newly minted Hormuz transit authority, a precursor to charging fees. Traffic last weekend was about one-third of the prewar level of more than 100 ships daily, split evenly between the Iranian and Omani sides of the waterway, according to Kpler, which tracks marine traffic.
In addition, the United States was working to conclude a separate peace between Lebanon and Israel that would include the long-elusive goal of disarming Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy force in Lebanon. Finally, in public discussions about financial aid, the scale kept shrinking.
Instead, even amid the weeklong funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader killed in the war in February, the Iranians decided to strike rather than wait for their leverage to dissipate, analysts said. Projectiles hit three tankers transiting the strait on Tuesday, although Iran did not claim responsibility.
The perception by Iran that it had bested the United States and Israel in the war earlier this year likely helped lead to the renewed confrontation, analysts said.
“Having withstood this pummeling from the U.S. and Israel, they are probably feeling quite secure,” said Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington who has advised both Republican and Democratic administrations on Middle East policy. “I think the timing of the attacks, coinciding with these funeral ceremonies, demonstrates a bit of triumphalism on the part of the regime that they finally, essentially extricated themselves from the war. They’re able to bury their dead, and they’re still firing back. There’s a message in that for sure.”
Even if shipping had flowed freely before the war, the message from Iran was that it intended to enforce a newfound chokehold over the strait, analysts said. The United States, which had lifted oil sanctions against Iran that had been in place for decades, immediately reimposed them.
Iran professed not to care. “Revenue is subordinate to control,” Majid Shakeri, an Iranian economist and adviser to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Parliament speaker and lead negotiator, said on state television. “Either we hold onto the strait, or every single one of us becomes martyrs for it.”
Still, both sides make a habit of fierce rhetoric and bluster, analysts noted, and tend to use warfare as a form of negotiation. Mr. Trump did not entirely dismiss the idea of getting negotiations back on track.
Ultra hard-liners in Iran have long assailed the very idea of negotiations, so there have been calls to withdraw from the memorandum of understanding over the situation in the strait.
“I think it is mostly posturing,” said Nate Swanson, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who previously served as director for Iran at the National Security Council under President Trump. “I think it is akin to what Trump is doing. He is negotiating through kinetic actions and loud threats, so in some ways they are speaking the same language.”
Iran was betting that Mr. Trump, expressing annoyance with the conflict and facing difficult midterm elections in four months, would not gamble on restarting an unpopular war, analysts suggested.
Yet Mr. Trump unleashed a tirade against the Iranians, assailing their leaders as “evil” and “scum” and suggesting that the United States would hit Iran even harder. He called the cease-fire “over.”
“They risk misreading President Trump which they have done over and over again,” said Joel Rayburn, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who is a retired U.S. Army colonel and a former special envoy for Syria during the first Trump administration. Iran has a long habit of taking provocative actions like firing on the tankers and then acting as the aggrieved party, he said, “They are overplaying their hand.”
It would not be the first time. Right after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the new hard-line government in Tehran held onto American Embassy hostages for 444 days, far longer than they served as useful bargaining chips, and had billions of dollars of assets in Western financial institutions seized in return. In 1982, Iran declined a truce in the Iran-Iraq war, leading to six more years of brutal fighting and hundreds of thousands of casualties.